ANZ银行对未来30年房价增长趋势的看法

Friday, 22 May 2026

ANZ银行对未来30年房价增长趋势的看法

根据REINZ房价指数，从1992年到现在，房价每年以平均6.0%的复利式增长（扣除通货膨胀后为3.8%）。在未来30年内，这一增长趋势能否继续？根据ANZ银行的看法，每年接近4%的可能性更大。

主要趋势

• 增长过程可能会有很大的上下波动；
• 由于燃料价格冲击的影响，2026年房价将下跌约2%；
• 2027年和2028年，房价预计将以每年3-4%的速度增长；
• 房价的上涨与收入大致相符。房价增长不会超过收入增长；
• 投资者和房东将收获较低的回报；
• 该增长趋势将有助于提高住房拥有率， 并支持更加稳定和富有弹性的经济发展。

每年6%的增长可能不会重复

• 从1992年以来发达经济体的年平均房价涨幅来看，新西兰6%的涨幅在24个国家中排名第三，仅次于挪威和冰岛；
• 一些国家的实际房价现在并不比1992年高。日本的房价平均每年下跌0.6%；
• 从20世纪30年代到90年代，澳大利亚、英国和法国的实际房价增长率每年约为2%；
• 名义房价上涨4%左右，实际房价上涨2%左右。这在国际间和历史经验中似乎是个正常趋势，远低于新西兰自1992年以来的6%的名义房价增长率，实际房价涨幅3.8%的水平。

什么在推动过去30年的房价上涨？

• 最重要的因素是利率一直呈下降趋势。从20世纪90年代到2021年，全球利率均呈稳步下降趋势；
• 新西兰利率较大幅度的下降有助于解释为什么新西兰的房价涨幅大于大多数其他国家；
• 从20世纪90年代起至2021年，新西兰人均收入上涨，同时加上人口增长，是推高新西兰房价的第二个重要因素；
• 住房供应紧张也是一个重要因素。

未来30年房价上涨趋势的预测

根据国际经验，在长达30年的时间里，名义房价增长率可能会在2%-6%的范围内。ANZ银行取其中间值，猜测未来几十年的平均年增长率约为4%（2%的实际增长率加上2%的CPI通货膨胀率）。

然而，任何猜测都存在巨大的不确定性。没有人知道未来30年的利率、全球经济和政府政策会发生什么改变。

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